Bank Stocks & Beyond: Gerard Cassidy’s Forecast
Guest: Gerard Cassidy – Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Financials Research and Large Cap Bank Analyst, with RBC Capital Markets
Podcast Notes:
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Topic: Bank Stocks & Beyond: Gerard Cassidy’s Forecast
Our guest is Gerard Cassidy – Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Financials Research and Large Cap Bank Analyst, with RBC Capital Markets
On this episode of “This Month in Banking,” we sit down with Gerard S. Cassidy, Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Financials Research, and Large Cap Bank Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, renowned for creating the “Texas Ratio” and consistently ranking as a top U.S. stock analyst. Gerard shares his expert outlook on bank stock performance for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, offering his perspective on the likelihood of a recession, the trajectory of interest rates and the yield curve, and the potential for industry-wide loan growth. The discussion also dives into the crucial role of core consumer deposits for bank profitability, the broader credit outlook for the banking sector beyond office CRE mortgages, the industry’s strong capital and liquidity levels in weathering future credit cycles, and Gerard’s expectations for the regulatory environment and bank M&A, including the vital future role of community banks. Listen and enjoy!
Biography
Gerard S. Cassidy is a Managing Director, Co-Head of Global Financials Research and Large Cap Bank Analyst, with RBC Capital Markets. Gerard S. Cassidy was a Managing Director of Equity Research with Tucker Anthony Sutro Capital Markets, which was acquired by the Royal Bank of Canada in 2001. Mr. Cassidy joined Tucker Anthony Sutro in March 1988 as a bank equity research analyst. Prior to joining Tucker Anthony Sutro, he was employed by UNUM Corporation as a senior bank analyst. Mr. Cassidy began his professional career with Gulf+Western Industries as a merger and acquisitions analyst.
- In 2024 he was rated the #1 U.S. Stock Analyst by TipRanks.
- Mr. Cassidy is the creator of the Texas Ratio, a ratio used by investors to determine whether a bank could be insolvent and is included in the book The Guide to The 50 Economic Indicators That Really Matter.
- He is also an II ranked analyst by Institutional Investor magazine.
- Mr. Cassidy was ranked fifth out of over 6000 analysts by TipRanks in the 2010-2019 decade for having the most successful stock picks.
- He is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, The American Banker, and other leading newspapers providing his insights on the banking industry. Additionally, he has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, Bloomberg TV and Radio and other leading broadcasts discussing banking and economic issues and its impact on bank stocks.
Mr. Cassidy earned a Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Maine in accounting and finance. He received his Masters of Business Administration degree from St. John’s University. In 2014, Mr. Cassidy endowed the Gerard S. Cassidy Capital Markets Laboratory at the University of Maine School of Business. He is currently the President and a Director of the BancAnalysts Association of Boston, Inc. and is a former Board of Director and Secretary of the New York Bank and Financial Analysts Association. Mr. Cassidy was also on the Board of Directors of Tucker Anthony Sutro Capital Markets. He is a member of the Investment Committee for the Diocese of Portland, Maine.
Relevant Links
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerardscassidy
https://www.linkedin.com/company/rbc-capital-markets
This podcast relates to The Kafafian Group’s Financial Advisory and Proft & Process Improvement services.
Watch for episode 115 of This Month in Banking to be released on Wednesday, July 30, 2025 and a new episode on the last Wednesday of every month.
Thank you for listening!